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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

Got an update on Map 4. First, I should have used a different color scheme on this map. Using the standard "blue/red" kind of shift is misleading, because people think "red = Republican" when, in this case, it really doesn't. "Red" on this map just indicated that your Democratic vote change over the past couple of elections didn't keep up with your population change.

So, for the first 67 counties (see the ranking in another comment below), the map works as it was intended. It also works as intended for counties who experienced Democratic vote decline (adjusted for population), which would be the bottom 56 counties. Having a red shade for those counties is probably ok, but I probably could have picked a better color.

But there's a group of 34 counties that really belong in an in-between range of their own. These counties experienced a growth in Democratic vote totals, but that growth was less than their registered voter population growth. What that means in their case is indeterminate, because it isn't clear how much of that growth is "true" growth (i.e. voters changing their voting patterns to include more Democratic voting), or how much is just the result of population growth (growth that will also add Republican voters in some mix that can't be accurately shown on this map.) I need to think of a different way of showing these counties on this map...a neutral color, maybe yellow...ish...I'm not sure yet, but I will rethink it and update this next week. For those interested, these counties are (in ranked order)

68 Gwinnett County

69 Houston County

70 Crisp County

71 Thomas County

72 Effingham County

73 Chattahoochee County

74 Murray County

75 Butts County

76 Habersham County

77 Chattooga County

78 Madison County

79 Bryan County

80 Oglethorpe County

81 Lumpkin County

82 Oconee County

83 Heard County

84 Hall County

85 Union County

86 Meriwether County

87 Bulloch County

88 Pike County

89 Tift County

90 White County

91 Bleckley County

92 Dooly County

93 Camden County

94 Franklin County

95 Lamar County

96 Morgan County

97 Polk County

98 Randolph County

99 Greene County

100 Crawford County

101 Troup County

102 Monroe County

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

Finally, the county rank for change in Democratic vote totals (adjusted for population) gives us this ranking, with bigger Democratic shifts toward the top.

RANK COUNTIES

1 Douglas County

2 Fayette County

3 Clay County

4 Baker County

5 Catoosa County

6 Miller County

7 Rockdale County

8 Long County

9 Seminole County

10 Lee County

11 Spalding County

12 Dade County

13 Peach County

14 Henry County

15 Jackson County

16 Dawson County

17 Haralson County

18 Walker County

19 Brantley County

20 Walton County

21 Cobb County

22 DeKalb County

23 Barrow County

24 Fulton County

25 Carroll County

26 Calhoun County

27 Coweta County

28 Terrell County

29 Muscogee County

30 Paulding County

31 Ware County

32 Stewart County

33 Bacon County

34 Clarke County

35 Newton County

36 Dougherty County

37 Floyd County

38 Worth County

39 Mitchell County

40 Clayton County

41 Banks County

42 Quitman County

43 Clinch County

44 Coffee County

45 Columbia County

46 Forsyth County

47 Wilkes County

48 Lowndes County

49 Sumter County

50 Gilmer County

51 Towns County

52 Irwin County

53 Whitfield County

54 Marion County

55 Rabun County

56 Harris County

57 Fannin County

58 Putnam County

59 Grady County

60 Brooks County

61 Glynn County

62 Jeff Davis County

63 Pickens County

64 Cherokee County

65 Wilcox County

66 Richmond County

67 Bartow County

68 Gwinnett County

69 Atkinson County

70 Houston County

71 Crisp County

72 Thomas County

73 Taylor County

74 Tattnall County

75 Effingham County

76 Chattahoochee County

77 Murray County

78 Butts County

79 Habersham County

80 Baldwin County

81 Bibb County

82 Chattooga County

83 Madison County

84 Montgomery County

85 Bryan County

86 Twiggs County

87 Burke County

88 Oglethorpe County

89 Jenkins County

90 Pierce County

91 Lumpkin County

92 Washington County

93 Oconee County

94 Heard County

95 Hall County

96 Webster County

97 Union County

98 Meriwether County

99 Colquitt County

100 Bulloch County

101 Chatham County

102 Johnson County

103 Pike County

104 Warren County

105 Tift County

106 White County

107 Laurens County

108 Schley County

109 Bleckley County

110 Pulaski County

111 Stephens County

112 Berrien County

113 Dooly County

114 Jefferson County

115 Upson County

116 McDuffie County

117 Dodge County

118 Camden County

119 Cook County

120 Liberty County

121 Talbot County

122 Franklin County

123 Lamar County

124 Wayne County

125 Morgan County

126 Hancock County

127 Wilkinson County

128 Polk County

129 Randolph County

130 Treutlen County

131 Toombs County

132 Evans County

133 Charlton County

134 Greene County

135 Ben Hill County

136 Early County

137 Turner County

138 Crawford County

139 Emanuel County

140 Wheeler County

141 Jones County

142 Elbert County

143 Macon County

144 Hart County

145 Glascock County

146 Appling County

147 Screven County

148 Candler County

149 Troup County

150 Echols County

151 Gordon County

152 Jasper County

153 Decatur County

154 Monroe County

155 Lincoln County

156 Taliaferro County

157 McIntosh County

158 Telfair County

159 Lanier County

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

Finally, on the Democratic vote shift map (Map 4), what seemed on the surface to be the easiest data point ended up being a bit more complex than I thought. I compare vote totals between elections...for example, Dade in 2020 had 1261 votes for Biden, in 2024 it had 1343 for Harris, for a difference of 82 votes. 82/1261 = 6.5% change. Then, when I went to do the same for Congressional, because the 2022 election was gubernatorial, the number of votes are substantially lower, so that's not a good comparison. So, I came up with a way to adjust the 2022 figures. I multiplied the total number of votes in the 2024 congressional election with the percentage of the Democratic candidate in the 2022 election, to come up with a "2024 equivalent." I then did the same process I did with Presidential. In the case of Dade, the % difference in vote ended up being 6.18% difference. I was then simply going to average those two percentages together (6.50% and 6.18%), but I then realized I needed to correct for population change too. That's necessary because population growth (or decline) alone can inflate or deflate a county's electoral numbers from one cycle to the next in a way that doesn't reflect a genuine shift of partisan voting patterns. Since the Census only offers estimates on 2024, I chose to use the change in number of registered voters between 2020 and 2024 to come up with a percent change, and I added that to the equation, so that the average between presidential % change and congressional % change has the population % change subtracted from it to get the final value.

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

Ranking the Georgia counties on shift in Congressional results, again 1 being the most Democratic shift, 159 the most Republican

RANK COUNTIES

1 Miller County

2 Seminole County

3 Baker County

4 Dooly County

5 Whitfield County

6 Mitchell County

7 Fayette County

8 Early County

9 Calhoun County

10 Webster County

11 Clay County

12 Decatur County

13 Quitman County

14 Randolph County

15 Terrell County

16 Coweta County

17 Stewart County

18 Lee County

19 Spalding County

20 Carroll County

21 Jackson County

22 Douglas County

23 Murray County

24 Sumter County

25 Thomas County

26 Grady County

27 Dougherty County

28 Rockdale County

29 Paulding County

30 Barrow County

31 Catoosa County

32 Marion County

33 Harris County

34 Walker County

35 Walton County

36 Henry County

37 Troup County

38 Haralson County

39 Cobb County

40 Chattooga County

41 Dade County

42 Peach County

43 Newton County

44 Crisp County

45 Hall County

46 Wilkes County

47 Bulloch County

48 Jeff Davis County

49 Clinch County

50 Pike County

51 Columbia County

52 Muscogee County

53 Dawson County

54 Forsyth County

55 Meriwether County

56 Houston County

57 Putnam County

58 Chattahoochee County

59 Crawford County

60 Bleckley County

61 Atkinson County

62 Heard County

63 Taylor County

64 Floyd County

65 Jenkins County

66 Brantley County

67 Schley County

68 Oconee County

69 Lamar County

70 Bartow County

71 Gilmer County

72 Habersham County

73 Coffee County

74 Bacon County

75 Bibb County

76 Lowndes County

77 Madison County

78 Gwinnett County

79 Colquitt County

80 Montgomery County

81 Banks County

82 Polk County

83 Oglethorpe County

84 Brooks County

85 Berrien County

86 Upson County

87 Irwin County

88 Pierce County

89 Toombs County

90 Franklin County

91 Wilcox County

92 Pickens County

93 Tift County

94 Macon County

95 Glascock County

96 Cherokee County

97 Fulton County

98 Towns County

99 Union County

100 Morgan County

101 Stephens County

102 Tattnall County

103 Effingham County

104 Greene County

105 Long County

106 Elbert County

107 Glynn County

108 White County

109 Evans County

110 Fannin County

111 Warren County

112 McDuffie County

113 Camden County

114 Echols County

115 Ware County

116 Lumpkin County

117 Monroe County

118 Rabun County

119 Hart County

120 Baldwin County

121 Washington County

122 Candler County

123 Screven County

124 Lincoln County

125 Appling County

126 Cook County

127 Butts County

128 Worth County

129 Laurens County

130 Dodge County

131 Bryan County

132 Pulaski County

133 Clayton County

134 Telfair County

135 Lanier County

136 Johnson County

137 Burke County

138 Jasper County

139 Wayne County

140 Jones County

141 Treutlen County

142 Ben Hill County

143 Richmond County

144 Emanuel County

145 Wheeler County

146 Clarke County

147 DeKalb County

148 Charlton County

149 Talbot County

150 Wilkinson County

151 Jefferson County

152 Chatham County

153 Turner County

154 McIntosh County

155 Twiggs County

156 Hancock County

157 Gordon County

158 Liberty County

159 Taliaferro County

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

Ranking the Georgia counties on shift in Presidential results, with 1 being the biggest shift toward Democrats, 159 the biggest shift toward Republicans, you get

RANK COUNTIES

1 Henry County

2 Douglas County

3 Rockdale County

4 Paulding County

5 Newton County

6 Spalding County

7 Fayette County

8 Walton County

9 Lee County

10 Jackson County

11 Dawson County

12 Barrow County

13 Brantley County

14 Coweta County

15 Houston County

16 Dougherty County

17 Gilmer County

18 Union County

19 Cobb County

20 Rabun County

21 Catoosa County

22 Effingham County

23 Cherokee County

24 Columbia County

25 Forsyth County

26 Walker County

27 Pickens County

28 Fannin County

29 Banks County

30 Bartow County

31 Haralson County

32 Bacon County

33 Hall County

34 Muscogee County

35 Chatham County

36 Floyd County

37 Habersham County

38 Gordon County

39 Crisp County

40 Richmond County

41 Bryan County

42 Putnam County

43 Peach County

44 Bibb County

45 Randolph County

46 Fulton County

47 Butts County

48 Pulaski County

49 Dooly County

50 Clayton County

51 Towns County

52 Gwinnett County

53 Harris County

54 Madison County

55 Dade County

56 Tift County

57 Carroll County

58 Wilcox County

59 White County

60 Pike County

61 Pierce County

62 Chattooga County

63 Oconee County

64 Murray County

65 Greene County

66 Bleckley County

67 Troup County

68 Sumter County

69 DeKalb County

70 Worth County

71 Wayne County

72 Washington County

73 Ware County

74 Glynn County

75 Stewart County

76 Chattahoochee County

77 Colquitt County

78 Montgomery County

79 Long County

80 Franklin County

81 Calhoun County

82 Irwin County

83 Clay County

84 Berrien County

85 Polk County

86 Stephens County

87 Lumpkin County

88 Baldwin County

89 Heard County

90 Oglethorpe County

91 Marion County

92 Wilkes County

93 Schley County

94 Turner County

95 Crawford County

96 Whitfield County

97 Clarke County

98 Monroe County

99 Miller County

100 Clinch County

101 Baker County

102 Taylor County

103 Jones County

104 Glascock County

105 Morgan County

106 Terrell County

107 Dodge County

108 Laurens County

109 Jenkins County

110 Tattnall County

111 Jeff Davis County

112 Lanier County

113 Lamar County

114 Meriwether County

115 Camden County

116 Macon County

117 Hart County

118 Jasper County

119 Coffee County

120 Bulloch County

121 Appling County

122 Candler County

123 Wilkinson County

124 Toombs County

125 Evans County

126 Charlton County

127 Seminole County

128 Emanuel County

129 Upson County

130 Quitman County

131 McDuffie County

132 Mitchell County

133 Ben Hill County

134 Wheeler County

135 Lowndes County

136 Cook County

137 Screven County

138 Grady County

139 Early County

140 Echols County

141 Liberty County

142 Johnson County

143 Warren County

144 Taliaferro County

145 Elbert County

146 Decatur County

147 Treutlen County

148 Atkinson County

149 Lincoln County

150 Twiggs County

151 Burke County

152 McIntosh County

153 Jefferson County

154 Telfair County

155 Hancock County

156 Talbot County

157 Webster County

158 Thomas County

159 Brooks County

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

Just to give a specific example of how I created Maps 2 and 3, let me take a look at the very first county alphabetically, Appling County.

In 2020, Appling County voted Trump 78.31%, Biden 21.26%, for a margin of -57.05%. In 2024, Appling voted Trump 81.13%, Harris 18.72%, for a margin of -62.41%. That's a marginal shift of -5.36%. I then do the same process for Congressional races between 2022 and 2024. Since I'm only dealing with percentages, I don't have to be concerned with the differences in total number of votes between presidential and gubernatorial cycles. I then take the two marginal shifts, one for Presidential, one for Congressional, and average those together to get my ultimate shift value.

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

Democratic county rankings based on my 1-1000 index.

Rank Counties

1 Clayton County

2 Rockdale County

3 Calhoun County

4 DeKalb County

5 Baker County

6 Richmond County

7 Dougherty County

8 Stewart County

9 Jefferson County

10 Hancock County

11 Henry County

12 Liberty County

13 Fulton County

14 Douglas County

15 Muscogee County

16 Bibb County

17 Talbot County

18 Chatham County

19 Newton County

20 Gwinnett County

21 Cobb County

22 Warren County

23 Clarke County

24 Burke County

25 Sumter County

26 Webster County

27 Taylor County

28 Fayette County

29 Macon County

30 Washington County

31 Taliaferro County

32 Wilkes County

33 Peach County

34 Telfair County

35 Chattahoochee County

36 Randolph County

37 Twiggs County

38 Mitchell County

39 Early County

40 Baldwin County

41 Screven County

42 Miller County

43 Wilkinson County

44 Clay County

45 Dooly County

46 Brooks County

47 Turner County

48 Marion County

49 Lowndes County

50 Forsyth County

51 Terrell County

52 Coweta County

53 Houston County

54 Meriwether County

55 McDuffie County

56 Glynn County

57 Spalding County

58 Paulding County

59 Thomas County

60 Cherokee County

61 Seminole County

62 Oconee County

63 Crisp County

64 Jasper County

65 Treutlen County

66 Troup County

67 Quitman County

68 Johnson County

69 Schley County

70 Columbia County

71 Charlton County

72 Grady County

73 Tift County

74 Hall County

75 Jeff Davis County

76 Lincoln County

77 Bulloch County

78 Ben Hill County

79 Greene County

80 Morgan County

81 Decatur County

82 Emanuel County

83 Upson County

84 Jenkins County

85 Crawford County

86 Butts County

87 Long County

88 Carroll County

89 Hart County

90 Lamar County

91 Jones County

92 Barrow County

93 Evans County

94 Glascock County

95 Cook County

96 Putnam County

97 Walton County

98 Wheeler County

99 Whitfield County

100 Bacon County

101 McIntosh County

102 Coffee County

103 Worth County

104 Candler County

105 Oglethorpe County

106 Floyd County

107 Wilcox County

108 Appling County

109 Montgomery County

110 Laurens County

111 Camden County

112 Harris County

113 Elbert County

114 Catoosa County

115 Monroe County

116 Irwin County

117 Madison County

118 Jackson County

119 Rabun County

120 Union County

121 Bartow County

122 Walker County

123 Bryan County

124 Lanier County

125 Chattooga County

126 Wayne County

127 Clinch County

128 Dade County

129 Effingham County

130 Tattnall County

131 Stephens County

132 Towns County

133 Colquitt County

134 Habersham County

135 Lee County

136 White County

137 Pulaski County

138 Heard County

139 Ware County

140 Dawson County

141 Toombs County

142 Murray County

143 Fannin County

144 Dodge County

145 Pickens County

146 Gordon County

147 Atkinson County

148 Polk County

149 Bleckley County

150 Franklin County

151 Pike County

152 Lumpkin County

153 Haralson County

154 Gilmer County

155 Banks County

156 Berrien County

157 Pierce County

158 Echols County

159 Brantley County

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

On Map 1, I took the election data for every county, looked at all the competitive partisan races, from top of the ticket all the way to the bottom, came up with an average % for Democratic candidates, and multiplied that by the number of competitive races. Having higher Democratic %'s obviously gives a higher Democratic score, but also running more candidates in more races does too. In fact, I came up with a ranking, 1 to 159, of all Georgia counties, which I will share in the next comment.

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Will Davis's avatar

CD-2 approves this message. Great deep dive. Great race by Shawn.

Will Davis, Chair, 2nd Congressional District

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Katherine Cummings's avatar

State party leadership abandoned Washington and Baldwin counties years ago. The person who always promotes himself as the best solution to all problems will have to be banned from the meetings, etc. if the Dems want to regain those counties. Shame on the party for letting that happen.

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Gary Burrows's avatar

Apparently White County, GA, is so red the maps didn't list it.

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

LOL It makes it onto Map 4 but not the others! I'm not sure why. I do know in the future we'll just leave "county" off and that will create more space so that (probably) all counties can be listed.

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Gary Burrows's avatar

No worries! Can you recommend the best place to find the hard number for the above? It would be instructive to quantitate the shifts in party and how it compares with neighboring counties.

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Dade (GA) Democrats's avatar

Here's the link to the spreadsheet. There are three tabs in the Sheet, the maps come from those tabs. You can view only, but if you have further questions, feel free to ask - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xb_32ZtvwKekQ8hUcEMVxMUqdzq3GA-bffklxOUI5XU/edit?usp=sharing

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Cathy Kott's avatar

Excellent and insightful analysis! I think the overwhelming propaganda cannot be overstated. Literally, the population in my district will not accept Facts Over the misinformation and disinformation, they are being fed. When we add that to sexism and racism… District 6 was not just appeal. It was Mount Everest.

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