Got an update on Map 4. First, I should have used a different color scheme on this map. Using the standard "blue/red" kind of shift is misleading, because people think "red = Republican" when, in this case, it really doesn't. "Red" on this map just indicated that your Democratic vote change over the past couple of elections didn't keep up with your population change.
So, for the first 67 counties (see the ranking in another comment below), the map works as it was intended. It also works as intended for counties who experienced Democratic vote decline (adjusted for population), which would be the bottom 56 counties. Having a red shade for those counties is probably ok, but I probably could have picked a better color.
But there's a group of 34 counties that really belong in an in-between range of their own. These counties experienced a growth in Democratic vote totals, but that growth was less than their registered voter population growth. What that means in their case is indeterminate, because it isn't clear how much of that growth is "true" growth (i.e. voters changing their voting patterns to include more Democratic voting), or how much is just the result of population growth (growth that will also add Republican voters in some mix that can't be accurately shown on this map.) I need to think of a different way of showing these counties on this map...a neutral color, maybe yellow...ish...I'm not sure yet, but I will rethink it and update this next week. For those interested, these counties are (in ranked order)
Finally, the county rank for change in Democratic vote totals (adjusted for population) gives us this ranking, with bigger Democratic shifts toward the top.
Finally, on the Democratic vote shift map (Map 4), what seemed on the surface to be the easiest data point ended up being a bit more complex than I thought. I compare vote totals between elections...for example, Dade in 2020 had 1261 votes for Biden, in 2024 it had 1343 for Harris, for a difference of 82 votes. 82/1261 = 6.5% change. Then, when I went to do the same for Congressional, because the 2022 election was gubernatorial, the number of votes are substantially lower, so that's not a good comparison. So, I came up with a way to adjust the 2022 figures. I multiplied the total number of votes in the 2024 congressional election with the percentage of the Democratic candidate in the 2022 election, to come up with a "2024 equivalent." I then did the same process I did with Presidential. In the case of Dade, the % difference in vote ended up being 6.18% difference. I was then simply going to average those two percentages together (6.50% and 6.18%), but I then realized I needed to correct for population change too. That's necessary because population growth (or decline) alone can inflate or deflate a county's electoral numbers from one cycle to the next in a way that doesn't reflect a genuine shift of partisan voting patterns. Since the Census only offers estimates on 2024, I chose to use the change in number of registered voters between 2020 and 2024 to come up with a percent change, and I added that to the equation, so that the average between presidential % change and congressional % change has the population % change subtracted from it to get the final value.
Ranking the Georgia counties on shift in Presidential results, with 1 being the biggest shift toward Democrats, 159 the biggest shift toward Republicans, you get
Just to give a specific example of how I created Maps 2 and 3, let me take a look at the very first county alphabetically, Appling County.
In 2020, Appling County voted Trump 78.31%, Biden 21.26%, for a margin of -57.05%. In 2024, Appling voted Trump 81.13%, Harris 18.72%, for a margin of -62.41%. That's a marginal shift of -5.36%. I then do the same process for Congressional races between 2022 and 2024. Since I'm only dealing with percentages, I don't have to be concerned with the differences in total number of votes between presidential and gubernatorial cycles. I then take the two marginal shifts, one for Presidential, one for Congressional, and average those together to get my ultimate shift value.
On Map 1, I took the election data for every county, looked at all the competitive partisan races, from top of the ticket all the way to the bottom, came up with an average % for Democratic candidates, and multiplied that by the number of competitive races. Having higher Democratic %'s obviously gives a higher Democratic score, but also running more candidates in more races does too. In fact, I came up with a ranking, 1 to 159, of all Georgia counties, which I will share in the next comment.
State party leadership abandoned Washington and Baldwin counties years ago. The person who always promotes himself as the best solution to all problems will have to be banned from the meetings, etc. if the Dems want to regain those counties. Shame on the party for letting that happen.
LOL It makes it onto Map 4 but not the others! I'm not sure why. I do know in the future we'll just leave "county" off and that will create more space so that (probably) all counties can be listed.
No worries! Can you recommend the best place to find the hard number for the above? It would be instructive to quantitate the shifts in party and how it compares with neighboring counties.
Excellent and insightful analysis! I think the overwhelming propaganda cannot be overstated. Literally, the population in my district will not accept Facts Over the misinformation and disinformation, they are being fed. When we add that to sexism and racism… District 6 was not just appeal. It was Mount Everest.
Got an update on Map 4. First, I should have used a different color scheme on this map. Using the standard "blue/red" kind of shift is misleading, because people think "red = Republican" when, in this case, it really doesn't. "Red" on this map just indicated that your Democratic vote change over the past couple of elections didn't keep up with your population change.
So, for the first 67 counties (see the ranking in another comment below), the map works as it was intended. It also works as intended for counties who experienced Democratic vote decline (adjusted for population), which would be the bottom 56 counties. Having a red shade for those counties is probably ok, but I probably could have picked a better color.
But there's a group of 34 counties that really belong in an in-between range of their own. These counties experienced a growth in Democratic vote totals, but that growth was less than their registered voter population growth. What that means in their case is indeterminate, because it isn't clear how much of that growth is "true" growth (i.e. voters changing their voting patterns to include more Democratic voting), or how much is just the result of population growth (growth that will also add Republican voters in some mix that can't be accurately shown on this map.) I need to think of a different way of showing these counties on this map...a neutral color, maybe yellow...ish...I'm not sure yet, but I will rethink it and update this next week. For those interested, these counties are (in ranked order)
68 Gwinnett County
69 Houston County
70 Crisp County
71 Thomas County
72 Effingham County
73 Chattahoochee County
74 Murray County
75 Butts County
76 Habersham County
77 Chattooga County
78 Madison County
79 Bryan County
80 Oglethorpe County
81 Lumpkin County
82 Oconee County
83 Heard County
84 Hall County
85 Union County
86 Meriwether County
87 Bulloch County
88 Pike County
89 Tift County
90 White County
91 Bleckley County
92 Dooly County
93 Camden County
94 Franklin County
95 Lamar County
96 Morgan County
97 Polk County
98 Randolph County
99 Greene County
100 Crawford County
101 Troup County
102 Monroe County
Finally, the county rank for change in Democratic vote totals (adjusted for population) gives us this ranking, with bigger Democratic shifts toward the top.
RANK COUNTIES
1 Douglas County
2 Fayette County
3 Clay County
4 Baker County
5 Catoosa County
6 Miller County
7 Rockdale County
8 Long County
9 Seminole County
10 Lee County
11 Spalding County
12 Dade County
13 Peach County
14 Henry County
15 Jackson County
16 Dawson County
17 Haralson County
18 Walker County
19 Brantley County
20 Walton County
21 Cobb County
22 DeKalb County
23 Barrow County
24 Fulton County
25 Carroll County
26 Calhoun County
27 Coweta County
28 Terrell County
29 Muscogee County
30 Paulding County
31 Ware County
32 Stewart County
33 Bacon County
34 Clarke County
35 Newton County
36 Dougherty County
37 Floyd County
38 Worth County
39 Mitchell County
40 Clayton County
41 Banks County
42 Quitman County
43 Clinch County
44 Coffee County
45 Columbia County
46 Forsyth County
47 Wilkes County
48 Lowndes County
49 Sumter County
50 Gilmer County
51 Towns County
52 Irwin County
53 Whitfield County
54 Marion County
55 Rabun County
56 Harris County
57 Fannin County
58 Putnam County
59 Grady County
60 Brooks County
61 Glynn County
62 Jeff Davis County
63 Pickens County
64 Cherokee County
65 Wilcox County
66 Richmond County
67 Bartow County
68 Gwinnett County
69 Atkinson County
70 Houston County
71 Crisp County
72 Thomas County
73 Taylor County
74 Tattnall County
75 Effingham County
76 Chattahoochee County
77 Murray County
78 Butts County
79 Habersham County
80 Baldwin County
81 Bibb County
82 Chattooga County
83 Madison County
84 Montgomery County
85 Bryan County
86 Twiggs County
87 Burke County
88 Oglethorpe County
89 Jenkins County
90 Pierce County
91 Lumpkin County
92 Washington County
93 Oconee County
94 Heard County
95 Hall County
96 Webster County
97 Union County
98 Meriwether County
99 Colquitt County
100 Bulloch County
101 Chatham County
102 Johnson County
103 Pike County
104 Warren County
105 Tift County
106 White County
107 Laurens County
108 Schley County
109 Bleckley County
110 Pulaski County
111 Stephens County
112 Berrien County
113 Dooly County
114 Jefferson County
115 Upson County
116 McDuffie County
117 Dodge County
118 Camden County
119 Cook County
120 Liberty County
121 Talbot County
122 Franklin County
123 Lamar County
124 Wayne County
125 Morgan County
126 Hancock County
127 Wilkinson County
128 Polk County
129 Randolph County
130 Treutlen County
131 Toombs County
132 Evans County
133 Charlton County
134 Greene County
135 Ben Hill County
136 Early County
137 Turner County
138 Crawford County
139 Emanuel County
140 Wheeler County
141 Jones County
142 Elbert County
143 Macon County
144 Hart County
145 Glascock County
146 Appling County
147 Screven County
148 Candler County
149 Troup County
150 Echols County
151 Gordon County
152 Jasper County
153 Decatur County
154 Monroe County
155 Lincoln County
156 Taliaferro County
157 McIntosh County
158 Telfair County
159 Lanier County
Finally, on the Democratic vote shift map (Map 4), what seemed on the surface to be the easiest data point ended up being a bit more complex than I thought. I compare vote totals between elections...for example, Dade in 2020 had 1261 votes for Biden, in 2024 it had 1343 for Harris, for a difference of 82 votes. 82/1261 = 6.5% change. Then, when I went to do the same for Congressional, because the 2022 election was gubernatorial, the number of votes are substantially lower, so that's not a good comparison. So, I came up with a way to adjust the 2022 figures. I multiplied the total number of votes in the 2024 congressional election with the percentage of the Democratic candidate in the 2022 election, to come up with a "2024 equivalent." I then did the same process I did with Presidential. In the case of Dade, the % difference in vote ended up being 6.18% difference. I was then simply going to average those two percentages together (6.50% and 6.18%), but I then realized I needed to correct for population change too. That's necessary because population growth (or decline) alone can inflate or deflate a county's electoral numbers from one cycle to the next in a way that doesn't reflect a genuine shift of partisan voting patterns. Since the Census only offers estimates on 2024, I chose to use the change in number of registered voters between 2020 and 2024 to come up with a percent change, and I added that to the equation, so that the average between presidential % change and congressional % change has the population % change subtracted from it to get the final value.
Ranking the Georgia counties on shift in Congressional results, again 1 being the most Democratic shift, 159 the most Republican
RANK COUNTIES
1 Miller County
2 Seminole County
3 Baker County
4 Dooly County
5 Whitfield County
6 Mitchell County
7 Fayette County
8 Early County
9 Calhoun County
10 Webster County
11 Clay County
12 Decatur County
13 Quitman County
14 Randolph County
15 Terrell County
16 Coweta County
17 Stewart County
18 Lee County
19 Spalding County
20 Carroll County
21 Jackson County
22 Douglas County
23 Murray County
24 Sumter County
25 Thomas County
26 Grady County
27 Dougherty County
28 Rockdale County
29 Paulding County
30 Barrow County
31 Catoosa County
32 Marion County
33 Harris County
34 Walker County
35 Walton County
36 Henry County
37 Troup County
38 Haralson County
39 Cobb County
40 Chattooga County
41 Dade County
42 Peach County
43 Newton County
44 Crisp County
45 Hall County
46 Wilkes County
47 Bulloch County
48 Jeff Davis County
49 Clinch County
50 Pike County
51 Columbia County
52 Muscogee County
53 Dawson County
54 Forsyth County
55 Meriwether County
56 Houston County
57 Putnam County
58 Chattahoochee County
59 Crawford County
60 Bleckley County
61 Atkinson County
62 Heard County
63 Taylor County
64 Floyd County
65 Jenkins County
66 Brantley County
67 Schley County
68 Oconee County
69 Lamar County
70 Bartow County
71 Gilmer County
72 Habersham County
73 Coffee County
74 Bacon County
75 Bibb County
76 Lowndes County
77 Madison County
78 Gwinnett County
79 Colquitt County
80 Montgomery County
81 Banks County
82 Polk County
83 Oglethorpe County
84 Brooks County
85 Berrien County
86 Upson County
87 Irwin County
88 Pierce County
89 Toombs County
90 Franklin County
91 Wilcox County
92 Pickens County
93 Tift County
94 Macon County
95 Glascock County
96 Cherokee County
97 Fulton County
98 Towns County
99 Union County
100 Morgan County
101 Stephens County
102 Tattnall County
103 Effingham County
104 Greene County
105 Long County
106 Elbert County
107 Glynn County
108 White County
109 Evans County
110 Fannin County
111 Warren County
112 McDuffie County
113 Camden County
114 Echols County
115 Ware County
116 Lumpkin County
117 Monroe County
118 Rabun County
119 Hart County
120 Baldwin County
121 Washington County
122 Candler County
123 Screven County
124 Lincoln County
125 Appling County
126 Cook County
127 Butts County
128 Worth County
129 Laurens County
130 Dodge County
131 Bryan County
132 Pulaski County
133 Clayton County
134 Telfair County
135 Lanier County
136 Johnson County
137 Burke County
138 Jasper County
139 Wayne County
140 Jones County
141 Treutlen County
142 Ben Hill County
143 Richmond County
144 Emanuel County
145 Wheeler County
146 Clarke County
147 DeKalb County
148 Charlton County
149 Talbot County
150 Wilkinson County
151 Jefferson County
152 Chatham County
153 Turner County
154 McIntosh County
155 Twiggs County
156 Hancock County
157 Gordon County
158 Liberty County
159 Taliaferro County
Ranking the Georgia counties on shift in Presidential results, with 1 being the biggest shift toward Democrats, 159 the biggest shift toward Republicans, you get
RANK COUNTIES
1 Henry County
2 Douglas County
3 Rockdale County
4 Paulding County
5 Newton County
6 Spalding County
7 Fayette County
8 Walton County
9 Lee County
10 Jackson County
11 Dawson County
12 Barrow County
13 Brantley County
14 Coweta County
15 Houston County
16 Dougherty County
17 Gilmer County
18 Union County
19 Cobb County
20 Rabun County
21 Catoosa County
22 Effingham County
23 Cherokee County
24 Columbia County
25 Forsyth County
26 Walker County
27 Pickens County
28 Fannin County
29 Banks County
30 Bartow County
31 Haralson County
32 Bacon County
33 Hall County
34 Muscogee County
35 Chatham County
36 Floyd County
37 Habersham County
38 Gordon County
39 Crisp County
40 Richmond County
41 Bryan County
42 Putnam County
43 Peach County
44 Bibb County
45 Randolph County
46 Fulton County
47 Butts County
48 Pulaski County
49 Dooly County
50 Clayton County
51 Towns County
52 Gwinnett County
53 Harris County
54 Madison County
55 Dade County
56 Tift County
57 Carroll County
58 Wilcox County
59 White County
60 Pike County
61 Pierce County
62 Chattooga County
63 Oconee County
64 Murray County
65 Greene County
66 Bleckley County
67 Troup County
68 Sumter County
69 DeKalb County
70 Worth County
71 Wayne County
72 Washington County
73 Ware County
74 Glynn County
75 Stewart County
76 Chattahoochee County
77 Colquitt County
78 Montgomery County
79 Long County
80 Franklin County
81 Calhoun County
82 Irwin County
83 Clay County
84 Berrien County
85 Polk County
86 Stephens County
87 Lumpkin County
88 Baldwin County
89 Heard County
90 Oglethorpe County
91 Marion County
92 Wilkes County
93 Schley County
94 Turner County
95 Crawford County
96 Whitfield County
97 Clarke County
98 Monroe County
99 Miller County
100 Clinch County
101 Baker County
102 Taylor County
103 Jones County
104 Glascock County
105 Morgan County
106 Terrell County
107 Dodge County
108 Laurens County
109 Jenkins County
110 Tattnall County
111 Jeff Davis County
112 Lanier County
113 Lamar County
114 Meriwether County
115 Camden County
116 Macon County
117 Hart County
118 Jasper County
119 Coffee County
120 Bulloch County
121 Appling County
122 Candler County
123 Wilkinson County
124 Toombs County
125 Evans County
126 Charlton County
127 Seminole County
128 Emanuel County
129 Upson County
130 Quitman County
131 McDuffie County
132 Mitchell County
133 Ben Hill County
134 Wheeler County
135 Lowndes County
136 Cook County
137 Screven County
138 Grady County
139 Early County
140 Echols County
141 Liberty County
142 Johnson County
143 Warren County
144 Taliaferro County
145 Elbert County
146 Decatur County
147 Treutlen County
148 Atkinson County
149 Lincoln County
150 Twiggs County
151 Burke County
152 McIntosh County
153 Jefferson County
154 Telfair County
155 Hancock County
156 Talbot County
157 Webster County
158 Thomas County
159 Brooks County
Just to give a specific example of how I created Maps 2 and 3, let me take a look at the very first county alphabetically, Appling County.
In 2020, Appling County voted Trump 78.31%, Biden 21.26%, for a margin of -57.05%. In 2024, Appling voted Trump 81.13%, Harris 18.72%, for a margin of -62.41%. That's a marginal shift of -5.36%. I then do the same process for Congressional races between 2022 and 2024. Since I'm only dealing with percentages, I don't have to be concerned with the differences in total number of votes between presidential and gubernatorial cycles. I then take the two marginal shifts, one for Presidential, one for Congressional, and average those together to get my ultimate shift value.
Democratic county rankings based on my 1-1000 index.
Rank Counties
1 Clayton County
2 Rockdale County
3 Calhoun County
4 DeKalb County
5 Baker County
6 Richmond County
7 Dougherty County
8 Stewart County
9 Jefferson County
10 Hancock County
11 Henry County
12 Liberty County
13 Fulton County
14 Douglas County
15 Muscogee County
16 Bibb County
17 Talbot County
18 Chatham County
19 Newton County
20 Gwinnett County
21 Cobb County
22 Warren County
23 Clarke County
24 Burke County
25 Sumter County
26 Webster County
27 Taylor County
28 Fayette County
29 Macon County
30 Washington County
31 Taliaferro County
32 Wilkes County
33 Peach County
34 Telfair County
35 Chattahoochee County
36 Randolph County
37 Twiggs County
38 Mitchell County
39 Early County
40 Baldwin County
41 Screven County
42 Miller County
43 Wilkinson County
44 Clay County
45 Dooly County
46 Brooks County
47 Turner County
48 Marion County
49 Lowndes County
50 Forsyth County
51 Terrell County
52 Coweta County
53 Houston County
54 Meriwether County
55 McDuffie County
56 Glynn County
57 Spalding County
58 Paulding County
59 Thomas County
60 Cherokee County
61 Seminole County
62 Oconee County
63 Crisp County
64 Jasper County
65 Treutlen County
66 Troup County
67 Quitman County
68 Johnson County
69 Schley County
70 Columbia County
71 Charlton County
72 Grady County
73 Tift County
74 Hall County
75 Jeff Davis County
76 Lincoln County
77 Bulloch County
78 Ben Hill County
79 Greene County
80 Morgan County
81 Decatur County
82 Emanuel County
83 Upson County
84 Jenkins County
85 Crawford County
86 Butts County
87 Long County
88 Carroll County
89 Hart County
90 Lamar County
91 Jones County
92 Barrow County
93 Evans County
94 Glascock County
95 Cook County
96 Putnam County
97 Walton County
98 Wheeler County
99 Whitfield County
100 Bacon County
101 McIntosh County
102 Coffee County
103 Worth County
104 Candler County
105 Oglethorpe County
106 Floyd County
107 Wilcox County
108 Appling County
109 Montgomery County
110 Laurens County
111 Camden County
112 Harris County
113 Elbert County
114 Catoosa County
115 Monroe County
116 Irwin County
117 Madison County
118 Jackson County
119 Rabun County
120 Union County
121 Bartow County
122 Walker County
123 Bryan County
124 Lanier County
125 Chattooga County
126 Wayne County
127 Clinch County
128 Dade County
129 Effingham County
130 Tattnall County
131 Stephens County
132 Towns County
133 Colquitt County
134 Habersham County
135 Lee County
136 White County
137 Pulaski County
138 Heard County
139 Ware County
140 Dawson County
141 Toombs County
142 Murray County
143 Fannin County
144 Dodge County
145 Pickens County
146 Gordon County
147 Atkinson County
148 Polk County
149 Bleckley County
150 Franklin County
151 Pike County
152 Lumpkin County
153 Haralson County
154 Gilmer County
155 Banks County
156 Berrien County
157 Pierce County
158 Echols County
159 Brantley County
On Map 1, I took the election data for every county, looked at all the competitive partisan races, from top of the ticket all the way to the bottom, came up with an average % for Democratic candidates, and multiplied that by the number of competitive races. Having higher Democratic %'s obviously gives a higher Democratic score, but also running more candidates in more races does too. In fact, I came up with a ranking, 1 to 159, of all Georgia counties, which I will share in the next comment.
CD-2 approves this message. Great deep dive. Great race by Shawn.
Will Davis, Chair, 2nd Congressional District
State party leadership abandoned Washington and Baldwin counties years ago. The person who always promotes himself as the best solution to all problems will have to be banned from the meetings, etc. if the Dems want to regain those counties. Shame on the party for letting that happen.
Apparently White County, GA, is so red the maps didn't list it.
LOL It makes it onto Map 4 but not the others! I'm not sure why. I do know in the future we'll just leave "county" off and that will create more space so that (probably) all counties can be listed.
No worries! Can you recommend the best place to find the hard number for the above? It would be instructive to quantitate the shifts in party and how it compares with neighboring counties.
Here's the link to the spreadsheet. There are three tabs in the Sheet, the maps come from those tabs. You can view only, but if you have further questions, feel free to ask - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Xb_32ZtvwKekQ8hUcEMVxMUqdzq3GA-bffklxOUI5XU/edit?usp=sharing
Excellent and insightful analysis! I think the overwhelming propaganda cannot be overstated. Literally, the population in my district will not accept Facts Over the misinformation and disinformation, they are being fed. When we add that to sexism and racism… District 6 was not just appeal. It was Mount Everest.