Looking at State Results

Second of Three Election Reviews

By Tom McMahan

Last week, I focused on our in-county results. This week we take a look at the state of our state.

Before I get into that, let me briefly address the questions swirling around our state Chair, Rep. Nikema Williams (GA-05). Williams seemed to indicate over the weekend that a new state Chair will be hired soon. It will be a full-time paid position, and this is welcome news. There have been numerous weak points in our state party’s structure for years now, and not having a dedicated, full-time Chair has been one of them.

Now, on with the state results.

My focus tends to be on numbers, and I will provide the numbers in a series of four maps. So, our first map is a straightforward look at how Democratic each of our counties are following this election. This includes races all the way up and down the ballot, with the number of contested races and the average Democratic percentage in those races factored together.

NOTE: The maps used here are created from election data I took from the Georgia Secretary of State’s website. The maps are the visual byproducts of my use of that data, with a huge assist from my friend Kitty Cox, who used ArcGIS software to turn that data into the maps you see. I have deeper explanations for the data in the comments below, and feel free to ask questions or offer critiques in the comments as well. If you wish to use the maps, please source reference them as by Tom McMahan and Kitty Cox (Nov 2024).

Map 1 - Our Democratic County “Health” Index. This as a “heat” map of sorts, with more Democratic counties in darker blue, less Democratic counties in lighter blue. Counties heavily Republican, like Dade and much of north Georgia, are colorless.

For some time, majority Democratic counties in Georgia have been Metro Atlanta, the counties with the smaller cities across the state, and the rural counties that make up Georgia’s “black belt.” Pay particular attention to those more Democratic counties in east and southwest Georgia.

So, with our “keeping it real” map out of the way, let’s now look at how partisan voting shifted across the state, first in the Presidential election.

Map 2 measures the shift in partisan marginal percentages for the Presidential race, with counties becoming more Republican in red, counties becoming more Democratic in blue. Just because a county is red or blue doesn’t mean its Republican or Democratic, it just means it shifted that way, and the darker the color, the larger the shift. The statewide shift was -2.44% from 2020 to 2024.

Some of the most significant shifts toward Republican voting occurred in the eastern Democratic counties across the black belt referenced in Map 1 above. Other large shifts occurred in the southwest. Some of the larger shifts were double-digit in nature, but most were just a few points. Metro counties largely held; inner Metro shifted red a little bit, but the outer Metro counties shifted blue, which means that some number of people are moving from inner Metro to outer Metro. Most northern counties, including Dade, didn’t shift that far Republican; a few shifted towards the Democrats. This in spite of record Republican turnout.

When we look at the same map, this time focusing on Congressional results, we get Map 3 below.

Map 3 measures the partisan marginal shift in voting percentages in Congressional races. Some traces of the “redness” from the previous map remains, but we also see significant blue areas in the northwest, Metro, and southwest areas. These correspond to the congressional districts in Metro, the 2nd CD in SW Georgia, and the 14th CD in NW Georgia. The statewide Congressional shift was -0.3% from 2022 to 2024.

A significantly different look emerges here. Many of those red counties in southwest Georgia are blue here, and northwest Georgia looks considerably bluer. Eastern Georgia, while still “reddish” is more subdued.

All five of Georgia’s Democratic incumbent Representatives had higher vote totals than the Harris/Walz team in all or most of their Congressional districts. Only one non-incumbent Democratic Representative candidate outperformed Harris/Walz - Shawn Harris, CD-14. And that was in a very Republican district that was made a bit more Republican following the last election, and with record high Republican turnout. No Congressional incumbents of either party lost their races.

Finally, let’s move away from comparing D and R %’s and shifts, and let’s take a look at just Democratic vote totals, both Presidential and Congressional, compared to their last elections, and adjusted for voting population shifts.

Map 4 compares Democratic vote totals from 2020 and 2024 presidential results, and turns the gains or losses into a percentage. It does the same for the 2022 and 2024 Congressional races, also adjusting the 2022 numbers to values comparable to 2024 results. All of these are averaged together and adjusted for population changes to get the results shown on the map. IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER ON THIS MAP - “reddish” colors do NOT mean more Republican. It simply means Democratic vote growth is actually negative, or is positive but less than the population growth of registered voters in the county. (See comment on this)

For us locally, this is the best map of the four, of course! And it means even more that the counties up here pooled our resources and acted as one “mini coordinated campaign” for our area. I think this approach offers a better way forward for rural and small counties across Georgia, rather than waiting for the statewide campaign to come to town, or simply trying to act on your own. And I have to say thank you thank you thank you for all the volunteers we had in our 4-county effort, and also to Shawn Harris and his campaign for coming up with their strategic approach. Our 3 metro Chattanooga counties were top performers in this measurement, and I think the effectiveness of our canvassing, post carding, phone banking, and texting paid off wonderfully! Of course, I also have to acknowledge that our Republican opponents locally had a turnout just as large, but we made ourselves noticed for the first time in years here.

OBSERVATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS

1. In my role as vice-chair of the state party Rural Council, I am aware that there are a number of counties, particularly in east and south Georgia, that no longer have functioning Democratic committees. This has to change! The structural weakness that causes is, I think, contributing to our poor performance there. Having stronger committees, even in very Republican areas, and in Republican favorable elections, can help stem the tide of votes not going your way, or even reverse it in Democratic areas. Look for example, at how well Sanford Bishop (Dem) GA-02, did in reversing the Republican lean Presidentially in the counties of his district in Maps 2 and 3.

2. This election wasn’t so much a “Republican” shift in Georgia as it was a “Trump” shift or maybe more accurately an “anti Biden-Harris” shift. Incumbent congressmen and women didn’t face the same backlash because people don’t attach the same (mis) perceptions to members of Congress that they do the party in the White House on economic issues like high prices, which would seem to be the most obvious reason for high turnout for Trump in many areas, but nowhere near as high in Congressional races.

3. In spite of delivering the world’s best economy in the wake of COVID, and delivering many economic benefits to this state specifically, the Biden-Harris team got blamed for the post-pandemic price surge and it stuck. Prices, along with what I suspect is significant sexism (by both men and women) in regards to having a female president, and of course the massive propaganda machine on the Right, seems to have overwhelmed the Dobbs and anti-Trump effects.

4. Strong congressional campaigns, like that of Shawn Harris, are an absolute MUST! Our state party has to provide more support to our Democratic Congressional challengers, particularly in Republican areas or areas where local party infrastructure is weak. The tendency to just say “you’re on your own” with fundraising and the like has to stop. It does not take an enormous amount of money and resources to run an effective campaign in our more rural districts. Money that goes straight into county development and canvassing will return far more votes for the buck than will larger, more expensive consultant driven campaigns.

5. I’m interviewing and talking with people close to the Georgia Harris/Walz campaign as well as some of our Democratic Congressional candidates around the state. I’m not ready to share those results, but the picture I’m getting so far is very mixed. I will add more at a later time.

6. We need to replicate and improve upon our election efforts in 2026 here in our area. It will most likely be a much more Democratic friendly election, and we have Senator Ossoff to re-elect!

Next week, our third and final installment will look at the national picture.