Runoff Wrap Up
And a Look Ahead at the Rest of the Election Year
Okay, my election night plans got short-circuited for a couple of reasons. Mainly, the results were coming in so fast that I couldn’t keep up with them. I also had a map malfunction, and I was just tired. So, I decided to wait a few days, gather up all the data, and write it up for today. Anyway, the numbers:
And, here in Dade, Hubbard had a huge 70-point advantage:
So, in review, before the runoff, I had four geographic areas that were crucial for whoever won the runoff. Those were, in order of importance,
Fulton County
Metro Suburbs (north vs south)
Coastal Counties
Rural counties (north vs south)
And, behind all of that, as in any runoff, which way would the vote for candidates who didn’t make the runoff break?
So, let’s look at three maps and walk through what each indicates.
In a previous post, I had pointed out that this would be a north-south election, based on the returns from June. Waites was strongest in the south, Hubbard only won a few counties, but finished 2nd in a lot of places, most especially the north. And, sure enough, as the map above shows, it was Hubbard in the north (and a few places in the south), and Waites in the south (with very little in the north). But this map doesn’t look that different from the primary map. Why such a different outcome?
There are a lot of small counties in Georgia, and in a small election like this one, a lot of those county totals dwindle to double or even single digits. This map removes any county with a turnout of fewer than 75 votes. (As you scroll over the map, the number represents the total number of votes.) When you do that, you can see how comparatively light the rural southern returns were to the rural northern ones. There are more southern counties, but the central and western sections of the South had few voters going to the polls. These were counties mostly in favor of Waites, but she gained little from them. The real battle was, of course, in and around Atlanta. That becomes even more apparent with our third map:
Peter Hubbard won his counties by consistently larger margins (percentages are what are represented in the map above) than Keisha Waites. You can point your mouse at various counties to see the margins. Hubbard won Fulton County by 38 points, won the northern suburbs by substantially more than Waites won the southern suburbs, had a comfortable margin around Savannah, and ran up the score in the north to neutralize Waites’ advantage in the south.
And the reasons underlying all of this? Around 4 in 5 returning Robert Jones, Daniel Blackman, and Alicia Johnson voters selected Hubbard over Waites. (It was more like 90% in the north.) The Hubbard campaign also seemed to do substantially more outreach than did Waites, which made an otherwise tight election an easy Hubbard win.
Now, the two PSC campaigns, Hubbard and Dr. Alicia Johnson, will spend the next few weeks working out plans and fundraising. Speaking of which, to contribute to Peter Hubbard, click here. To contribute to Alicia Johnson, click here.
Some upcoming election info for the remainder of the year:
Georgia State Senate District 21 Special election - an at-large primary for this Cherokee/north Fulton County seat will be held on August 26th. Democrat Debra Shigley is the sole Democrat in a multi-candidate race in a district that is winnable for our side.
Qualifying for municipal elections occurs August 19-21 at Trenton City Hall for the Police Commissioner and Parks & Rec Commissioner. Yes, it’s technically the Parks & Animal Control Commissioner, but animal control is being shifted under the police department by the city of Trenton. Given what has happened recently with the Sheriff’s Department, that doesn’t sound very good, but it’s happening. At this point, the two incumbents, Police Commissioner Mike Norris and Parks & Rec Commissioner Terry Powell, are running, along with Parks & Rec challenger Cody Doyle. Elections will be in November.
Public animal care and control remain embarrassingly bad in our county. It’s high time the citizens of this county, and especially its commissioners, took this issue more seriously. There are a lot of people in Dade working to reverse this. A non-profit we recommend supporting is the Tri-State Humane Society.
Other dates:
August 18th - start turning in absentee request forms for the November general election. Remember, you have to do a request form for each round this year because it’s a “special” election.
August 27th - Dade Democratic Committee 3rd Quarter business meeting at the New Salem Community Center. General election plans will be discussed and finalized here.
September 24th - Dade Democrats Fall fundraiser and social at the Cloudland Canyon Group Shelter. More info on this in the weeks ahead.
October 6th - registration deadline for the November general election.
October 14-31st - advance voting for the November general election.
November 4th - PSC Special and Municipal general election.